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发表于 2009-7-28 14:25:49
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道琼斯newswire的28号的outlook,大家参考
Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 94.66-95.38 94.57-95.53
EUR/USD 1.4170-1.4299 1.4133-1.4337
AUD/USD 0.8144-0.8263 0.8122-0.8380
NZD/USD 0.6527-0.6612 0.6512-0.6626
GBP/USD 1.6380-1.6523 1.6308-1.6542
USD/CHF 1.0650-1.0741 1.0621-1.0759
USD/CAD 1.0776-1.0878 1.0700-1.0923
EUR/JPY 134.23-136.09 133.82-136.91
EUR/GBP 0.8610-0.8687 0.8571-0.8700
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY - to consolidate with positive bias after hitting nearly-3-week high of 96.38 yesterday, supported by JPY-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment as Wall Street closed tad higher (DJIA up 0.17%, S&P up 0.30%). Stocks helped by much stronger-than-expected U.S. June new home sales (up 11% vs forecast for +2.3%), though optimism tempered by mixed earnings reports, data showing Dallas Fed July production index worsened to minus -17.4 from minus 7.0 in June; Chicago Fed Midwest June manufacturing index fell 0.3% to 16-year low of 78.1. USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for Japan import settlements, Japan political uncertainty, higher U.S. Treasury yields; Fed hawk Plosser telling Dow Jones Newswires that U.S. interest rate hike will be needed in "not too distant future" and perhaps before unemployment peak. But USD/JPY topside limited by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 1300 GMT U.S. May Case-Shiller home price index, 1400 GMT U.S. July Conference Board consumer confidence index, 1400 GMT U.S. July Richmond Fed Survey, 1630 GMT Fed's Yellen speaks. USD/JPY daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter near overbought: suggests sideways or higher USD/JPY trading near-term. Resistance at 95.38 (yesterday's high); breach would target 95.53 (55-day moving average), then 96.14 (July 3 high) and 96.78 (100-day moving average). Support at 94.66 (yesterday's low), then at 94.57 (Friday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 93.82 (uptrend line from July 13 low of 91.72), then 93.51 (Thursday's low), followed by 93.07 (Wednesday's reaction low) and 92.69 (July 14 low).
EUR/USD - to consolidate with positive bias after hitting 7-week high of 1.4299 yesterday. EUR/USD underpinned by EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades amid receding risk aversion, improving euro-area data: German Gfk August consumer confidence index rose to 3.5 from 3.0 in July (vs forecast for 3.0). Data focus: 0730 GMT Italy July consumer confidence survey. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher EUR/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.4299 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.4337 (June 3 reaction high), then 1.4361 (Dec. 29 high) and 1.4719 (Dec. 18 top). Support at 1.4170 (yesterday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, targeting 1.4133 (Friday's low), then 1.4118 (Thursday's low), followed by 1.4053 (July 16 low) and 1.3987 (55-day moving average).
AUD/USD - to consolidate with positive bias after hitting 7-week high of 0.8259 yesterday. AUD/USD underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades on decreased risk aversion, firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 0.58 at 252.49); but gains tempered by contagion from Kiwi weakness. Data focus: 0300 GMT RBA Governor's speech. AUD/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher AUD/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 0.8263 (June 3 top); breach would expose upside to 0.8380 (61.80% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9849-0.6004 July 15, 2008-Oct.27, 2008 decline), then 0.8519 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.8144 (yesterday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, targeting 0.8122 (Friday's low), then 0.8087 (July 21 low), followed by 0.8022 (July 20 low) and 0.7958 (July 16 low).
NZD/USD - to range-trade, underpinned by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades on receding risk aversion; but topside limited by surprise NZ June goods trade deficit of NZ$417 million (vs consensus for NZ$258M surplus); caution ahead of Thursday's RBNZ interest rate announcement. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought. Resistance at 0.6612 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.6626 (Thursday's high), then 0.6637 (previous base set Aug. 17, 2007); after which there is no significant resistance until 0.6951 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8213-0.4890 March 14 2008-March 4 2009 decline). Support at 0.6527 (yesterday's low); breach would target 0.6512 (Thursday's low), then 0.6497 (July 21 low), followed by 0.6417 (July 17 low) and 0.6381 (July 15 low).
GBP/USD - to range-trade, weighed by concerns over high UK public debt, UK banks' funding worries, uncertainty over BOE's quantitative easing, lingering effect of Friday's weak UK 2Q GDP data. But GBP/USD losses tempered by receding investor risk aversion. Data focus: 1000 GMT UK June Land Registry house price index, 1000 GMT July CBI monthly distributive trades survey. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish at overbought, but MACD flat. Support at 1.6380 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.6308 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6264 (July 17 low), followed by 1.6204 (55-day moving average) and 1.6030 (July 13 low). Resistance at 1.6523 (yesterday's high), breach would target 1.6542 (Friday's high), then 1.6585 (Thursday's high), followed by 1.6744 (June 30 top) and 1.6803 (previous base set Oct. 10).
USD/CHF - to range-trade. USD/CHF underpinned by fears of SNB CHF-selling FX intervention, short-CHF carry trades on decreased risk aversion, weak Swiss economic outlook. USD/CHF daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold. Resistance at 1.0741 (yesterday's high), then at 1.0759 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.0770 (Thursday's high), then 1.0817 (July 17 high), followed by 1.0833 (55-day moving average) and 1.0893 (July 15 high). Support at 1.0650 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0621 (July 21 low), then 1.0587 (June 2 reaction low) and 1.0367 (Dec. 29 trough).
USD/CAD - to consolidate with negative bias after hitting 9.5-month low of 1.0776 yesterday, undermined by lower investor risk aversion, stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $0.33 at $68.38/barrel). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May job insurance claims. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics stay suppressed at oversold: suggests sideways or lower USD/CAD trading near-term. Support at 1.0776 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0700 (downtrend support line from July 15 low of 1.1115); after which there is no significant support until 1.0296 (Sept. 25, 2008 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0878 (yesterday's high); breach would nullify near-term negative bias, exposing upside to 1.0923 (Friday's high), then 1.1010 (Thursday's high), followed by 1.1089 (Wednesday's high) and 1.1114 (July 21 high).
EUR/JPY - to consolidate with positive bias after hitting 3-week high of 136.09 yesterday, underpinned by carry trades amid receding investor risk aversion. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher EUR/JPY trading near-term. Resistance at 136.09 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 136.91 (July 1 reaction high), then 138.34 (June 10 high) and 139.21 (June 5 top). Support at 134.23 (yesterday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, targeting 133.82 (Friday's low), then 132.81 (Thursday's low), followed by 132.22 (100-day moving average) and 132.04 (Wednesday's low).
EUR/GBP - to range-trade. EUR/GBP daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.8610 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8571 (Friday's low), then 0.8561 (Thursday's low), followed by 0.8543 (July 14 low) and 0.8534 (July 10 low). Resistance at 0.8687 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.8700 (Wednesday's high), then 0.8794 (June 8 high) and 0.8824 (confluence of 100- & 200-day moving averages). |
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